GUINEAN FLOOD TREND FORECASTS FOR 2020/2021

The hydrographs of the flood at the Upper Niger, the Inland Delta and the Lower Niger are characterized by a single crest while in the Middle Niger it is characterized by two peaks, namely that of the local flood and the Guinean flood. This peculiarity of Middle Niger observed at the hydrometric stations of Niamey in Niger, Malanville in Benin and Jiderebode in Nigeria is explained by the fact that the flows in the middle Niger are successively influenced by local rainfall in Burkina Faso, Niger, in Benin and Nigeria during the period from July to September on one hand and by the flows from the upper basin during the period from October to March on the other hand.

The first peak of the flood recorded in the period from July to September is called “red flood” or “local flood”, while the second which occurs between October and March is called “Guinean flood”.

In 2020, the average Niger experienced exceptional flooding during the months of August and September which caused significant flooding in the regions of Tillabéry, Dosso and Niamey in Niger, in localities located downstream in Benin (Malanville, Karimama) and in Nigeria (Kebbi, Sokoto, Niger, Benue and Kogi states etc.). This flood is due to heavy rainfall recorded in this part of the basin, particularly in Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin and Nigeria.